Evaluation of Decision Aids on Specific Joint Tasks of VGB PowerTech (Decision Analysis)

Project Number 216

To carry out specific works, working procedures or complex operational sequences their economicalness and/or productivity are examined and evaluated more frequently. With the help of such examinations or assessments, unprofitable working procedures or sequences are optimised or abolished. In the framework of VGB's committee and joint tasks works are carried out, whose meaning does not necessarily show an immediate advantage by saving costs. A "Decision Analysis" method established by KEMA/NRG on behalf of Dutch power plant operators on the evaluation of technical processes will be tested to evaluate the benefit of these tasks.

This "Decision analysis" method was developed in US by Strategic Decision Group and other companies and consists in the following working procedures:

  • Preparation of a project to enable an integration in a matrix of influence and relationship.
  • Investigation of relevant influence parameters (e. g. Tornado Diagram).
  • Evaluation of probabilities of possible success. The result is shown in a portfolio whereby an indicator of success is presented as a function of the required work.
  • The indicator of success is defined by the ratio of probability of success to the possible benefit and the means invested. The advantage of the procedure is a clear systematic, which is based on objective comprehensible factors and which enables a realistic evaluation.

The target of this research project is the evaluation of committees and joint tasks, which financial benefit is hard to demonstrate (e.g. research projects, provision of guidelines, exchange of experience, etc.). In three pilot projects the "Decision Analysis"-method will be tested on the applicability to these tasks and the results will be extended to further working fields. The project shall provide an objectively comprehensible decision criteria in all cases applied.