The energy transition is a sword of Damocles hanging permanently over the present and future. With a stoppage of investments in new plants, the existing portfolio of thermal power stations is facing obsolescence. At the same time, a fifty percent reduction in maintenance is presenting a threat to security of supply. In practice, this means that power plant operators are postponing servicing and maintenance, and running plants to the limits of wear. This endangers power supply in Germany, and additionally threatens jobs in the energy sector and in plant construction.

It is essential for stable political conditions to be created without delay, so as to make further safe and economical operation of power plants possible and to bring them in line with future requirements. For it has only been possible to create the existing power generation capacity with a stable economic basis for the development and operation of thermal power plants which has been maintained for decades.

In terms of social policy, we all gladly agree that safety, affordability and environmental compatibility are necessarily equal aspects in the focus of our efforts to secure power supplies. Competitive electricity prices and security of supply are however just as important in ensuring the survival of our domestic companies and the power plant operators themselves. Highly volatile electricity prices constitute a threat in this respect if they get out of control in an uncertain environment with biased regulation. For a large number of players in industry, the energy transition has in that way become a real existential danger.

The operators of thermal power plants have to be put in a position to maintain the required portfolio of power plants while covering costs. The Renewable Energy Act (EEG) in Germany, however, exclusively promotes the generation of power from solar and wind power without addressing the problems that creates. The consequence is that the fluctuating supplies of energy from renewables require massive compensation by conventional power plants fuelled with coal and gas. The wear on those plants is much greater in these circumstances than in normal operation. The costs of the additional maintenance required and the conversion necessary for flexible operating modes cannot however be covered by earnings without any governmental subsidies – and that makes the existing power plant portfolio a risk factor in terms of security of supply.

Maintenance management and economic organisational adjustments are required

The current economic pressure is partly being met with measures to reduce costs, putting assets at risk by

• utilising reserves up to the design limits of power plants,
• doing without redundancies in the dimensioning of plants,
• cutting jobs, and
• reducing maintenance costs.

Now, however, new smart maintenance concepts are required, although viable strategies for preventive maintenance cannot at present be implemented. At the same time, comprehensive regular maintenance is not economically possible. A deterioration in substance appears unavoidable.

Plant operators themselves can counteract the commercial pressure resulting from increased maintenance work by offering industrial services to external customers. Correspondingly, a rise in competition can be observed in the energy industry, with increased contracting out of maintenance work to service providers at fixed prices.

It is also possible to counteract the increasing pressure on costs for operators and suppliers by developing various kinds of comprehensive spare parts strategies, such as central depots of spares, strategic partnerships in procurement, or company-wide parts management systems so as to reduce the stocks of spares at power plants.

Stable environment required for sustainable maintenance strategies

Operators, however, are currently in a situation of upheaval and uncertainty, with a constant flow of new demands from government stripping them of a basis for cost-effective action, including preventive maintenance.

Firstly, stable background conditions have to be established, and only then can viable maintenance strategies be developed. Security of supply, i.e. the maintaining of conventional power plant capacities, must be rewarded by the market in future. Only in that way will the needed reliability of thermal power plants and their further adaptation to meet future requirements be possible.

The decision between the capacity market and capacity reserves in the context of designing the future electricity market has a direct impact on the maintenance strategies of tomorrow. The following specific questions arise:

• What level of maintenance will be economically viable?
• What effects will a lengthening of maintenance cycles have on plant availability?
• What are the efficiency criteria for reserve capacities, and are there sufficient commercial rewards for providing these?

The continuing lack of stable background conditions is a direct threat to a system which still provides 70 percent of Germany’s electricity.